SPAC Titanic Sinking Fast: 160 of 183 Deals Underwater as the Band Plays On


As expected, the SPAC market is getting messy on multiple fronts as the median stock performance on the 183 completed tech SPACs is down 44%. SPAC shareholder suits are emerging, Multiplan being the most notable and cause for big changes in proxy solicitation disclosures. Failed SPAC mergers are also picking up steam with 7 in Q4 '21 and 6 more so far in '22. Many SPAC PIPE investors have pulled out of the market, resulting in just three of the ten deals announced in 2022 having PIPEs exceeding $50M in size, and three with no PIPEs at all. Redemptions on the 14 closed deals in 2022 were 85%, and those 14 have already dropped 31%. Sponsors and selling shareholders are closing these SPACs knowing they are going into a free fall. Most of these newly minted public companies are well below their IPO price, losing money with little to no research coverage and trading support. If high redemptions continue, then more of the 66 announced deals will get scrapped, forcing sponsors out in the cold to find another deal. Newly announced deals are under much more scrutiny, pushing down the volume of deals.As predicted, '22 new IPOs have dropped dramatically in size from $300M to an average of $173M. Against this devastating backdrop, I am surprised to see the band playing on (in this case Wall Street) with 31 tech SPAC IPOs completed in 2022. In fact, SPACs have accounted for 75% of all IPO capital raised so far this year ($6.9B of $9.1B). The traditional tech IPO market is frozen. Not surprisingly, Goldman and Morgan and the other big banks have pulled back from the SPAC IPO market for the time being. On the bright side, we should now start to see some take-privates among these broken SPACs as PEs and Strategics begin to pick through the rubble for hidden gems. Rising above the ashes is Trump's SPAC which has risen 795% since announcement and is now trading at an implied value of roughly $17B based on converting all possible issued shares whether or not outstanding. It is looking to de-SPAC this Spring with $1.3B in cash.

SPAC Titanic Sinking Fast: 160 of 183 Deals Underwater as the Band Plays On

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